For years, hot-shot speculators made huge profits flipping condos in Florida and Vegas before they were even constructed. All the while, the naysayers in the ivory towers of Wall Street and academia warned of a “housing bubble” that was sure to burst as all bubbles do. When Fed chairman Alan Greenspan said that national real estate market was “frothy,” the writing was really on the wall, and anyone with half a brain could see that we were in for a “cooling” of the housing market, at best. And yet still, speculators continued to profit, and the real estate bull market marched on…

But the bulls aren’t marching now. Greenspan handed his matador’s cape to the new Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, who continued the policy of interest rate hikes designed to deflate housing. No longer accelerating at a break-neck pace, home prices have flattened like a pancake in many markets, and new the condo speculators who got in late are in for a world of hurt. Clearly, the housing “boom” is over in many parts of the Country. But contrary to the media hype, this is great news for flippers!

Flipping vs. Speculating
It should be made clear that there is a difference between flipping and speculating. While speculators may be a sub-set of flippers, they are, at best, the amateurs of the real estate investing family. Flippers who have consistent success are more conservative and have a fundamental approach to real estate investing. While it may not be as exciting as speculating, the rewards of more conservative flipping are nearly as generous, and they are paired with far less risk.

The biggest difference between flipping and speculating is that flipping works in any market, whereas speculating only works in certain places at certain times. Las Vegas from 2002 to 2004 was a great time and place to be a speculator, but if you were still in the market in 2006, chances are you got burned by more than the hot desert sun. Basically, speculating often works on the “greater fool” thesis – that you can always find a greater fool than yourself to take a property off your hands in the expectation that he will be able to find yet a greater fool. Eventually, someone is left holding the bag and that’s when the party is over.

Flipping, by contrast, relies on fundamentals. The idea is not to catch a shooting star in a rapidly appreciating market. Rather, the plan is to find undervalued properties, rehab them, present them in an attractive manner, and sell them for a reasonable profit. Not only is a rising market not a requirement of flipping success, it may even be a mild detriment! After all, it is a bit harder to find bargain properties in booming areas. Sure, it can still be done, but the point is that even falling markets are prime for flipping since the holding period is often too short for the value of the property to decline beyond the deep discount at which it is purchased. Assuming that you add value through rehabbing, you almost can’t lose!

Exit Strategies – Always Have a Plan B
While speculators often rely on the “greater fool” strategy, flippers tend to have one of two exit plans: 1) Quickly flip the title to another investor, or 2) Rehab and sell the property at the retail level. While the lion’s share of the profits go to the retailer, a quick wholesale deal can free up your cash (and energy) for the next deal. But what if neither strategy works? What if the market really crashes and the buyers disappear? Is all lost? Of course not!

For complex economic reasons, the rental property market does not always correlate with the housing market. In fact, they are often countercyclical. Although most flippers aren’t terribly interested in being landlords, generating rental income from a botched deal is a solid backup plan. Better yet, you can usually refinance the property after rehabbing it to get all of your money out. From that point forward, the bulk of your rental income will be pure profit, and when the market improves, you can make the sale. Even better, you can offer your tenants a lease with an option to buy, which is attractive to many young families looking for their first home.

The media portrays real estate flippers as the investment world’s answer to Wild West gunslingers, but in reality, nothing could be further from the truth. Compare the “worst case” rental income scenario of real estate flipping with the “worst case” Enron scenario of stock market investing. There really is no comparison! If you take a fundamental approach to real estate rehabbing and flipping, your risk is limited and your profits are virtually limitless. It really is the best of all worlds

by Bill Bronchick

Q: I live in a market that’s so hot that houses go on the market and get a close-to-full-price offer in less than a week. I can’t buy properties here for less than full value, and no one is willing to carry terms, since there are thousands of qualified buyers looking for houses. Do I just wait for the market to slow down, or what? S.R, Philadelphia A: We all live in the market you describe, and have for a long time. The National Association of Realtors has been reporting record-setting sales for three years; mortgage money is plentiful; anyone who wants to work is fully employed in the tightest labor market this century. These factors add up to enormous competition among potential homeowners for properties in nearly every price range. Competition drives up prices, and a “seller’s market” results. Yet, at the same time, real estate investors are buying properties for pennies on the dollar, negotiating low money-down seller financing, and generally prospering along with everybody else. Why are others making deals when you aren’t? I’d like to suggest that a large part of the reason might be that you’re looking at the wrong properties, and don’t have enough strategies in play for finding the right ones. Obviously, a seller who has a nice-looking house in a decent neighborhood and months to sell is not going to agree to your 70% offer or carry sweet financing terms. Why should they? Your competition for this type of property-the homeowner wannabe-is ALWAYS going to outbid you, because they buy for different reasons (school system, aesthetics, love of the zip code) than you do. These sellers are always the most readily identifiable, since they generally list with agents, or at least put a “For Sale by Owner” sign in the yard. However, the obvious sellers are not the ones that the professional real estate investor in this type of market looks to deal with. Despite the good economic times, and despite the fact that many properties are selling for 100% or more of asking price within 30 days, there are still sellers out there with problems that make it impossible to sell quickly (or at least quickly enough to meet the seller’s needs!) or for full price. It’s these sellers that you need to work with, because, in solving their problems, you will be able to make a profit from their properties. Don’t expect to find these folks through the multiple listing service. While the MLS is still my favorite way to find junker properties to flip, anything in half-decent shape is being aggressively marketed by agents to homeowner and investor clients. Instead, run ads. Distribute flyers. Write letters to people who have estate properties. Find ways to reach these sellers and let them know that you can help them. My last 4 deals involved 2 estates, a divorce, and a frustrated landlord, and were purchased via a loan assumption, a land contract, and two cash offers at 60% of value. Three of the 4 came from calls on an ad in the paper; the fourth was a referral from another investor. Investors in my market- even those with years of experience-have complained to me about the same situation you describe. Yet they’re still making deals. So maybe it’s a little tougher to find cooperative sellers than it was 10 years ago; as in every business, you just adapt your methods to the market. And by the way, things are slowing down. Interest rates are up, mortgage brokers are laying off salespeople, foreclosure rates are accelerating, and every major lender is opening a “short sale” department to negotiate lower payoffs on defaulted mortgages. There-that’s all the hint I’m giving you. Now get out there and make some deals!

by Vena Jones-Cox