Archive for March, 2008

Bizarro World for homebuilders

Thursday, March 27th, 2008

Homebuilders like Lennar keep reporting losses and warn that it won’t get better soon. So why are the stocks among this year’s biggest winners?

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Honestly, Wall Street sometimes seems like Bizarro World in the old Superman comics.Case in point: Look what’s going on with homebuilders.

Lennar (LEN, Fortune 500), for example, is still feeling the effects of the housing slump: It reported its fourth consecutive loss and sales plunged 64%. What’s more, the company’s CEO said in a statement that “the housing industry continues to be impacted by an unfavorable supply and demand relationship.”

However, Lennar’s loss was smaller than expected. It only reported a loss of 56 cents per share. Analysts had been forecasting a loss of $1.07 a share. The result? Lennar’s stock gained nearly 3% Thursday morning.

Lennar is not the only struggling homebuilder that has been rewarded by investors for avoiding the worst-case scenario. In fact, after a brutal 2007, the homebuilding sector is on track to end the first quarter as one of the hottest, bucking the market’s overall bearish trend.

Shares of Hovananian Enterprises (HOV, Fortune 500) are up 54% year-to-date. Pulte Homes has gained nearly 35%. And shares of KB Home (KBH, Fortune 500) and D.R. Horton (DHI, Fortune 500) are both up more than 15%. I wonder what D.R. Horton CEO Donald Tomnitz, who famously said a year ago that 2007 would “suck,” has to say about this year’s rally in homebuilding stocks. Maybe something like “it’s good to suck.”

It may seem odd that investors are pouncing on homebuilders even though the earnings and sales projections for 2008 are bleak at best. In addition, it’s hard to get excited about the outlook for homebuilders considering yesterday’s Census Bureau headline that new home sales had hit a 13-year low in February.

So what’s up with the homebuilding rally? Analysts and fund managers have often said that historically, the best time to buy homebuilders is when they seem expensive. Translation:Buy builders’ shares when the companies are only expected to report small profits – or maybe even losses – and avoid them when the stocks seem cheap.

That’s because when homebuilding shares trade at low price-to-earnings ratios, it’s probably because their earnings – the denominator of the P/E equation – are likely close to their peak. Now, on the other hand, even though many homebuilders don’t even have E’s to speak of, it might be time to buy because things can only improve.

It’s a risky move to make but several savvy money managers are betting on a rebound of the sector. My colleague Colin Barr at Fortune pointed out in a story last month that Legg Mason Value Trust manager Bill Miller expects the sector to bounce back this year. And Miller is not alone.

According to data from FactSet Research, which tracks institutional investment flows, several funds at Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, Manning & Napier and State Street increased their postiions in Lennar, KB Home and other homebuilders in the fourth quarter of last year. Plus, the influential Chicago-based hedge fund Citadel Investment Group upped its stake in KB Home, Ryland Group (RYL, Fortune 500) and Toll Brothers (TOL, Fortune 500).

So even though it may seem counterintuitive to buy companies that are likely to continue racking up losses, some investors seem to be getting the sense that the bottom for homebuilders may soon be near … even if the market isn’t going to turn around for the better anytime soon. Down is up and up is down indeed.

By Paul R. La Monica, CNNMoney.com editor at large  

Why it’s not too late to refinance

Thursday, March 27th, 2008

Rates have crept up from recent lows, but even now, a refi can be a smart move.

(Money Magazine) — Earlier this year, when mortgage rates dipped below 6% for the first time since 2005, homeowners rushed to refinance costlier loans. In fact, more than six out of 10 mortgage applications so far this year have been for refis.But lately mortgage rates have been on an uptick – the average 30-year fixed mortgage hit 6.2% by the end of February, up from 5.6% a month earlier.

Have you missed your chance to nab a cheaper home loan? Not necessarily. Rates are still near historical lows, and besides, these days there are some compelling reasons to refinance beyond a lower rate. Here’s how to tell if a refi makes sense for you.

You have an ARM or a jumbo loan Refinancing could still be a good move if you have adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) that’s due to adjust this year, as 2.2 million homeowners do. True, your first adjustment may not feel so bad – a 4.5% rate may jump to 6%. But if inflation is coming back, as many economists believe, next year’s markup could be grim – maybe 7% or higher – and you’ll face the possibility of another increase every year thereafter.

With fixed rates at 6.2%, is saving a quarter point or so worth the anxiety? If you don’t think so, refinance into a 30- year fixed-rate loan now. Another option, if you’re likely to move in a few years: a five-year hybrid ARM. With recent rates around 5.6%, you’ll likely save money – now and later.

You may also benefit from a refi if you have a large loan. Jumbo mortgages, normally about a percentage point higher than smaller loans, are about to get cheaper thanks to a new law that will hold the rate of some jumbos (loans of $417,000 to $730,000, depending on where you live) near that of all other mortgages.

Home prices are falling in your city If property values in your area are plummeting, you may find it tougher to refinance later on. You’ll need at least 10% equity in your home (20% or more is better) to be approved for a refi in today’s credit-crunchy environment.

To calculate your equity, get an estimate of your home’s current value at zillow.com or find out what comparable homes have been selling for from a local broker. Your equity is what you have left over when you subtract your loan balance from your home’s price.

You look good to lenders You’ll need a fairly pristine credit record to land a competitive rate – a FICO score of at least 680 to qualify and a score of 740 or higher for the best deals, says Keith Gumbinger, president of mortgage tracker HSH Associates (get your score for $16 at myfico.com).

You run a greater risk by waiting If you have a jumbo mortgage, you’ll probably want to hold out until the summer, when banks will likely start rolling out lower-cost jumbo loans.

But if you are postponing a refi in hopes of future rate cuts, keep in mind the lessons of the past month, says Doug Duncan, outgoing chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association: Fixed mortgage rates won’t necessarily follow the Fed’s lead.

Bottom line: If you can get a good deal now, take it. To top of page

By Joe Light, Money Magazine staff reporter

The New American Gentry Moves Out Into the Country

Monday, March 17th, 2008

The word “gentrification” conjures up images of once-poor urban neighborhoods invaded by cappuccino bars and million-dollar condos. Now, broad swaths of rural America — from New England to the Rocky Mountain West — are being gussied up, too.Affluent retirees and other high-income types have descended on these remote areas, creating new demand for amenities like interior-design stores, spas and organic markets. For many communities, it’s the biggest change since the interstate highway system came barreling through in the 1960s and 1970s.

With the Internet allowing people to work from almost anywhere, the distinction between first and second homes has become blurred. Many people are buying retirement property while they’re still employed. Millions of soon-to-retire baby boomers, say demographers, will propel this trend for years to come.

“What we’re seeing is a class colonization,” says Peter Nelson, an associate professor of geography at Middlebury College and an expert on rural migration. “It really represents a shift in the nature of the economy from a resource-extraction economy to an aesthetic-based economy.”

Such change can create social tensions, as longtime residents are either driven away because they can no longer afford housing or are forced to adapt to new careers.

The impact of rural gentrification is playing out in this lakeside town, situated roughly 100 miles from Boise in Valley County. For decades it’s been home to ranchers, farmers and timber workers. It has also served as a weekend retreat for residents throughout the state who flocked to Payette Lake for summer fishing and boating.

Today, Valley County is attracting newcomers from as far away as New York and Sydney. They’re putting up second and third residences costing well over $1 million — price levels once reserved for the few waterfront properties.

In recent years, developers have snatched up land for $100,000 an acre in some cases, or 40 times what it fetched as farmland. Though home prices here are declining as in other parts of the nation, houses still cost about 60% more than in 2004.

The influx of money is creating new jobs in hotels and restaurants as traditional industries like farming and timber fade out. Tamarack ski resort in nearby Donnelly helped super-charge growth in the area. Opened in 2004, the resort, the nation’s newest downhill ski destination, is expected to cost about $1.5 billion when fully completed in a decade or so.

Retail sales in the Valley County area increased 30% between 2003 and 2005, according to local research. New members in the McCall Chamber of Commerce include a jewelry store and two art galleries.

Jeff Bowlby, a Seattle cabinet manufacturer, has purchased three properties here over the past six years. Along the way, he’s noticed an explosion of new services and goods for sale. One local fly-fishing store, for instance, now sells rubber waders for $750 a pair. Spa del Sol offers a $125 Salmon River stone massage, using heated local stones that have been carefully selected “for their shape and energy.” Remarks Mr. Bowlby: “The notion of getting a massage five years ago was pretty crazy.”

City Market & Wine shop opened here about a year ago and caters to epicureans with $200 bottles of Italian Barolo and two dozen varieties of olive oil. For Thanksgiving, the store posted a sign-up sheet for organic turkeys. “Probably every Range Rover in town shops here,” says Mark Colafranceschi, a Canadian transplant who owns the shop with his fiancée.

Uneven Development

Rural gentrification, and the trappings that go with it, isn’t unique to Idaho. Washington’s Methow Valley, once a logging community, now attracts cross-county skiiers. Its Twisp Municipal Airport boasts about 30 hangars for private planes, or double the number 10 years ago. Virginia’s Bath County, tucked into the Allegheny Mountains, encompasses a number of land grants given to colonists in the 1600s. A longtime favorite among hunters, boaters and fishermen, it began sprouting second homes in the 1990s.

And yet gentrification is selective. Rural America makes up about three-quarters of the nation’s land mass, but has just 17% of the population, about 50 million people. Many mining towns and Great Plains’ farming communities have stagnating or shrinking populations while more scenic communities are soaking up new residents.

 One indicator of rural gentrification: An increase in residents’ total dividend, interest and rent income. That measurement, tracked by the Commerce Department, is a sign that new residents — usually retirees — are living off their investments rather than salaries. In Teton County, Wyo., home of Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, total dividend, interest and rent income has risen 177% between 1996 and 2005, one of the largest increases in rural America.

Other resort counties have seen similar increases. Eagle County, Colo., which includes Vail, has had a 109% increase in non-wage income , while Mono County, Calif., where Yosemite National Park is located, has had a 94% rise.

In Valley County and elsewhere, the influx of city money can be a challenge for rural economies. Infrastructure like roads and sewers becomes strained. Fire departments, which often rely on volunteers, don’t expand as quickly as the housing stock. and the newcomers push prices up, in some cases forcing locals to outlying towns. To lure teachers, the McCall-Donnelly Joint School District three years ago created a $250,000 housing fund , and rents apartments to teachers at subsidized rates of $500 to $1,000 a month.

But a number of veteran teachers have moved to nearby New Meadows, in adjacent Adams County, where real estate is cheaper. Kurt Dwello is one of them. A sixth-grade math and science teacher, he moved to McCall in the early 1980s and spent $40,000 building a house there. When he looked out his window, he saw an open pasture and grazing cattle. Three years ago, when he packed up for New Meadows, the view had been transformed — to one of a golf course and several new houses. “It was getting too busy here and things were getting really expensive,” he says.

The area, though, has not been immune to the real-estate bust. Construction has slowed and building permits today are down. If they were to sell today, people who bought at the peak in 2005 would most likely lose money. But demographic trends indicate that people will continue coming here.

One reason: baby boomers and the previous generation are moving to rural areas in increasing numbers. Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire’s Carsey Institute, says 76% more people over age 50 moved to “recreation counties” — places with lots of amenities and seasonal housing — in the 1990s than in the 1980s. “This suggests that people who are now in their 50s and 60s are moving into these recreation counties more than in the past,” he says.

Ripple Effects

Jim Jones is the kind of person who, without a career change, couldn’t have lived here before the Internet. Mr. Jones, a 59-year-old sales consultant, moved to McCall full-time from Issaquah, Wash. about nine months ago after tiring of traffic, people and noise. He still works a six- or seven-day week and spends a lot of time on the road. But living in McCall has its bonuses — like afternoon skiing. “It’s been discovered and that’s a good thing,” he says. “Communities like this have to grow, because they’ve got too much to offer not to.”

In Valley County, as with a great many gentrifying areas, some local residents are turning to the political process to try to keep the area from becoming another Aspen or Vail. Over the past few years, the McCall City Council has placed limits on chain restaurants and passed an ordinance prohibiting gated communities. A measure to increase the height limit on lakefront buildings to 50 feet from the current 35 feet was shot down.

One of the more contentious issues has been the local airport, which doesn’t yet have commercial service. Those who support the area’s changes would like to lengthen the runway and add a passenger terminal. Those against growth would prefer to see the airport stay just as it is.

“Are you going to be a government for the people who live here or are you going to be a government for the people who want to come here and develop?” says Tuck Miller , a ski coach and McCall native who recently ran for City Council and lost. “That’s what every one of these fights is about.”

The ripples of gentrification can even be felt in nearby Cascade, a blue-collar town whose culture once revolved around the timber industry and the now-defunct Boise Cascade saw mill. “It used to be only locals,” says Karen Cowper, a bartender at the Valley Club, which has walls adorned with mounted moose heads, a selection of hard hats and a sign that reads: “We support the timber industry.”

These days, the bar is packed with construction workers and ski bums who come up to work and play. Ms. Cowper, 54 years old, says she now makes about $150 on a weekend evening — triple what she collected in tips three years ago. To keep up with changing tastes , the bar now stocks Guinness and microbrews, says Ms. Cowper, who scrawls new drink recipes on index cards and keeps them in a flip-top metal box.

She isn’t the only one learning new tricks. With the closing of the saw mill, many workers retooled their skills and moved to service jobs. Ron Lundquist, who had operated a forklift at the mill, earned a degree in hotel management.

Today, the 52-year-old is marketing director at the Ashley Inn, a new hotel in Cascade. Instead of hauling lumber from the conveyor to train, he does things like traveling to snowmobile-trade shows to promote the area. Though he misses the camaraderie of the sawmill, he says “I’m proud of what everybody has pulled together to make happen here.”

Evolving Fortunes

Valley County has tracked the arc of rural gentrification. Like much of the West, its first growth spurt followed the Civil War. The Homestead Act, signed by Abraham Lincoln in 1862, provided up to 160 acres of western land to anyone willing to live on and farm it. Eastern farmers and immigrants headed west. But rural growth slowed almost as quickly as it surged.

By the turn-of-the-century, with much of the desirable western land settled, most of America’s immigrants began pouring into cities. They were joined by descendants of the original homesteaders. With mechanized farming reducing the need for labor, young people left the farm for urban jobs. The shift to the cities continued over the next several decades.

Until recently, Valley County’s economy rose and fell on farming and timber. In the 1970s, when the local timber industry was at its peak, there were five mills in the vicinity. In later decades, mills were shuttered as a result of job-displacing technology and federal limits on logging in national forests.

Rural counties gained population in the 1990s, a development that surprised demographers who dubbed it the “rural rebound.” This movement continued in 2001 and after.

One area that picked up traction was Valley County. Between 2003 and 2006 , the county issued an average of 530 new housing permits a year, compared with an average of 167 a year in the previous three years. The population increased 16% to 8,836 between 2000 and 2006 , and almost all the growth was due to people moving in. Roughly 54% of the county’s homes are occupied by part-time residents.

A Fancier Playground

Valley County long has been a recreation hub. Payette Lake, a glacier lake that sits on the edge of McCall , is a summer draw for boaters and fisherman. But it’s become a lot fancier: Hotel McCall recently added a restaurant. And it replaced its room keys, which were attached to wooden buoys that could float, with plastic key cards.

Winter sports have taken on increasing importance. In 1961, the Brundage Mountain Resort opened with financing from J.R. Simplot, the billionaire potato magnate. More recently, the Tamarack Ski Resort has spent millions on magazine ads and radio commercials to broadcast the virtues of Valley County to wealthy homebuyers around the world.

People like Scott Pine have come here for good. A few years ago, Mr. Pine, a 54-year-old high-tech entrepreneur who spent his career in Silicon Valley and Seattle, began looking at homes in Bend, Ore., and Minden, Nev., near Lake Tahoe. After the opening of Tamarack, he and his wife spent $1.1 million building a four bedroom house in McCall. It sits on the ninth hole of a golf course and has views of the northern Rockies. “You have all this open space and nobody is around you,” he says.

Some are finding it hard to let go of the past. Ken Roberts, an Idaho state representative, has spent his entire adult life farming hay, grass and oats on land that has been in his family since 1901. That was the year his grandfather arrived in a horse-pulled wagon whose splintered, rusted remains sit under a canopy of ponderosa and aspen pine trees on the edge of the family farm.

Now that Valley County has been discovered, the value of Mr. Roberts’s family land has shot up from about $1,500 an acre a few years ago to more than $100,000 in some places. When his mother, who is in her late 70s, passes on, he estimates the federal tax bill could exceed the total earnings of three family generations. Despite the huge tax hit, Mr. Roberts says his goal is to keep at least some of the 600 acres in the family.

“There’s 106 years of family history down there, and I love to farm,” he said on a recent evening, as he sat in his truck and looked down on his land. Mr. Roberts acknowledges that his problem is a good one to have. But unless he sells the land to a developer, his family will remain land rich and cash poor.

So now he’s looking to develop certain parcels, and use the money to preserve the rest as farmland. He’s also found a way to supplement the farm’s modest income: he started a construction company.

By Conor Dougherty
From The Wall Street Journal Online

Buying a Retirement Home Decades Before You Retire

Monday, March 17th, 2008

Retirement-home sales are growing — among buyers still decades away from retiring.From New York’s Catskill Mountains to Oregon’s rocky coast, younger couples who might otherwise be focused on building a nest egg instead are buying a lakefront house or country cabin that they hope to one day use in retirement.

For these younger buyers, this isn’t an extension of the real-estate investment bug that bit a few years ago and is now fading as home prices flag in many markets. And they’re not throwing financial caution to the wind just because they want a second home.

Instead, they’re crunching the numbers and making hard decisions about their personal finances. In some cases, they’re receiving an inheritance or a stock grant and are choosing to invest in their future real-estate needs rather than the stock market. In other cases, they’re altering their expectations about how long they’ll work and the kind of returns they’ll earn on their nest egg in order to pursue an emotional investment.

No one knows how many younger buyers are out snapping up their retirement homes. But real-estate agents and financial planners around the country say they’re increasingly assisting younger buyers spending $100,000 to $500,000 for a house to call home in retirement. Partially at play is a cultural shift planners say they see among younger savers who aren’t content to just accumulate assets to use in retirement. Instead, this younger generation wants to put some of its nest egg to work today as an investment in family.

A year ago, Daniel Merkle and Sandra Bauman of Glen Rock, N.J., took roughly 20% of their retirement assets — none of it coming from tax-deferred accounts like their IRAs or 401(k) plans — and bought a cottage on a hill with 60 feet of lake frontage in Athens, N.Y., in the Catskill Mountains. “It was clear the money was better off in the index funds we owned,” Mr. Merkle says. “But there are factors you can’t see on a spreadsheet — like the time we get with our kids building memories there,” he says. “We wanted to get in while it was affordable.” The trade-off is that the couple had to give up on the idea of retiring early. “But we realized you never know what is going to happen in 20 years, and it’s better to enjoy it now,” Mr. Merkle says.

Gregg Yaeger, a vice president at Chicago’s Northern Trust Corp., says he has dealt with several younger clients doing this in recent years, including a 37-year-old client currently buying a retirement house on a lake in Michigan. “He wants this place specifically to retire,” Mr. Yaeger says, “but he also wants it now as a place to build a bank of memories with his kids.”

The question many people face is how to afford the future today. After all, beyond the price of the house there is maintenance, insurance, taxes and other costs. Phillip Cook, a financial planner in Torrance, Calif., says he discourages his clients from pursuing this strategy because “most of the rationale is emotional, and financially I think that’s a mistake. Do you really think you know where you want to live 25 or 35 years from now?”

Nevertheless, people who receive an inheritance or other cash infusion are often deciding to put that money into retirement real estate instead of stocks. Others are pulling some of the nonretirement-plan money from their nest egg. Either way, says Suzanne Krasna, a financial planner in Walnut Creek, Calif., the bottom line is to figure out if your income can support the additional liability of this house after you’ve met other obligations — such as building an emergency savings account, contributing to a child’s educational savings and fully funding your retirement plan — and after accounting for your current lifestyle.

Clients without deep pockets, Ms. Krasna says, are finding ways to afford the home they want to retire to. One of her clients — a 39-year-old single mother — recently sold her home in Northern California and decided to rent instead so that she could use the cash to build a nest egg and buy the home she wants to retire to in New Mexico. This client, Ms. Krasna says, is generating from her New Mexico home $500 in excess cash that she is also funneling into her retirement account. The trade-off: Because renters live there, she doesn’t get to spend time with her daughter at her future retirement home.

Mr. Cook, the planner in Torrance, Calif., says prices on retirement homes purchased in resort locations are often volatile, negating the idea that the homes are an investment. That doesn’t mean they won’t appreciate, though. While all real estate is susceptible to price declines, unique properties, such as those on a lake, tend to appreciate over time at a faster rate than traditional residential real estate “because you can’t just replicate these kinds of properties in a subdivision,” says James Donnelly, vice president of J. Lee Donnelly & Son, a Bethesda, Md., real-property appraisal firm.

Jeff Page, a senior director for a clinical-research company, says the house that he and his wife, Laura, bought — a 1,400 square foot, three-bedroom cottage on Lake Gaston, near the North Carolina-Virginia border — has already doubled in value in the four years they’ve owned it. The Raleigh, N.C., couple purchased the place when they were each 32 years old, heeding the advice of both their fathers who both advised essentially the same thing: Enjoy your money while you’re young. So, from April through early September, the Pages and their three children spend most weekends at the lake. “The house is an asset,” Mr. Page says, “so it’s not like we’re throwing away part of our retirement savings.”

Younger buyers, however, don’t necessarily see these homes as investments. They recognize that real estate has intrinsic value and that their retirement dollars remain at work in some fashion, since, if they do live in this house at retirement, they can sell their current primary residence to supplement their retirement savings.

Most, though, are like Anuraj Bismal, 40, and his wife, Ann. The pair pulled money from their nest egg and bought 38 acres and a 100-year-old farmhouse in far northeastern Pennsylvania, about 2½ hours from their Montclair, N.J., home because, after each seeing parents die in recent years, they’ve come to the conclusion that “the moment is now,” says Mr. Bismal, a financial executive with a major Wall Street firm. So, the Bismals spend most weekends at their Pennsylvania house, and Mr. Bismal expects they’ll spend part of every year in retirement there.

“I could care less if I make $1 on this place,” he says. “For me, this is very basic: I want to live my life now.”

By Jeff Opdyke
From The Wall Street Journal Online

High school students get innovative in Science Olympiad

Wednesday, March 12th, 2008

Steamboat Springs – Seth Davidson pulled on a strap to trigger a system of batteries and axles, and suddenly the wooden vehicle began rolling across the classroom floor like a miniature tank.

“It’s slow, but it’s powerful,” said Davidson, a Steamboat Springs High School junior and member of the Science Olympiad team. “We had to turn it on without touching it.”

Seth and his brother Jordan Davidson, a senior, built the vehicle in about two weeks with senior Vincent Abate. They entered it in the Science Olympiad competition held at Poudre High School in Fort Collins last weekend.

Steamboat science teacher Charlie Leech said 23 teams from 16 schools entered the competition, which included academic tests as well as building and design challenges. Steamboat’s high school team placed 12th, Leech said, good enough to qualify for the state competition April 12 at the Colorado School of Mines in Golden.

Fifteen Steamboat students are members of the Science Olympiad team, Leech said, including freshmen through seniors. Sophomore Stefan Palmer helped build bagpipes and a pipe-style xylophone for a “Sound of Music” event, which required two musical instruments that could be used to play “God Bless America.”

After a brief tune, Palmer cupped his hands and banged out notes to the song on the large-scale, modified xylophone made of PVC pipes held together with wooden planks.

The students used upholstered vinyl to build airbags for the bagpipes, which Jordan Davidson said included reeds made from yogurt cup materials and dental floss.

“It’s like MacGyver,” Jordan Davidson said, referring to the 1980s TV secret agent as he pulled a reed from the bagpipes. “You can even see the nutrition labels.”

Jordan Davidson said largely thanks to a stroke of luck, the bagpipes played in tune.

“It brought a tear to my eye,” Leech said.

Leech said the team will work on fine-tuning its competition entries in preparation for next month’s event and is looking for a local sponsor to help with some of the costs and to support young engineers.

He credited senior Victoria Lavington with handling much of the organizing duties for the team. Lavington said her role included designing the team T-shirts, coordinating team meetings and schedules, and keeping everyone on track for the regional competition.

She gave a simple reason for her involvement in Science Olympiad.

“Making new friends and getting out of the perspective of cliques,” Lavington said. “We all had fun.”

By Mike Lawrence

http://www.steamboatpilot.com/

New Rules Ease the Sting of Mortgages

Wednesday, March 12th, 2008

 REACTING to the troubles in the nation’s housing and mortgage markets, Congress enacted measures late last year that will give tax breaks to some beleaguered home buyers.

The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007, which is effective from Jan. 1, 2007, through Dec. 31, 2009, is expected to provide more than $600 million of tax relief to people whose mortgages on their principal residences are foreclosed.

Sidney Kess, a New York tax lawyer and certified public accountant, gave this example of how the law works: Suppose a buyer defaults on a $220,000 mortgage. The bank forecloses and sells the house in today’s battered market for $180,000. The $40,000 of remaining debt is discharged. Under previous law, the $40,000 was considered income and was subject to taxation. Under this law, the tax obligation is forgiven.

The law also extends a deduction for mortgage insurance that was authorized for 2007 by the Tax Relief and Health Care Act of 2006. Barbara Weltman, a tax lawyer in Millwood, N.Y., who is also a contributing editor of “J. K. Lasser’s Your Income Tax 2008″ (John Wiley & Sons, 2007, $17.95), said the deduction would be significant for many young homebuyers who put little or no money down, especially when they might be facing rising payments on adjustable-rate mortgages.

Buyers who put down less than 20 percent when buying their home are required to buy the insurance to protect not themselves but the primary lender, she noted. Both private sources and government agencies like the Federal Housing Administration and the Department of Veterans Affairs offer this insurance.

The insurance can cost several hundred dollars a year, or even more than $1,000. The full deduction is available to people whose adjusted gross income is $100,000 or less; it phases out when income reaches $110,000. There is no tax relief, however, for people who stretched to buy the nicest home they could afford in recent years and sold at a loss last year. “There’s no deduction at all for a loss on a principal residence,” said Julian Block, a tax lawyer in Larchmont, N.Y.

Investment real estate, like other assets, is subject to tax rules governing capital gains and capital losses, but a personal residence is different.

Mr. Block pointed to the example of people who had made large down payments – upwards of $80,000 in some cases – on retirement homes being built in South Carolina by Levitt & Sons, the big home builder that filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy last November.

Some may eventually get homes that are worth less than their contractual price; others expect to lose their entire deposit; but none will get tax relief on their losses, he said.

Experts also offered advice on various other considerations for taxpayers this year:

PROFESSIONAL PREPARATION “People will find that preparers are fussier about data this year,” said Bill Fleming, a tax director in the private client services group of PricewaterhouseCoopers in Hartford. The reason is that the Small Business and Work Opportunity Tax Act of 2007 calls for stiff penalties on professional preparers who take an “unreasonable position” on a return or who are guilty of willful or reckless conduct.

As a result, accountants are likely to want to see the documents that back up a client’s deduction claim, he said. For mortgage interest and real estate taxes, for example, that would be the 1098 form issued by the bank or financial institution. “The I.R.S. has to be strict, so we have to be strict, too,” he said.

Mr. Fleming cautions taxpayers, whether do-it-yourselfers or those who turn to professionals, to double-check every W-2 and 1099 form when it arrives and to contact the issuer if there are any errors, and also to be careful in collecting their own data and organizing it.

“We’re seeing more penalties imposed on accidental errors, carelessness,” he said. “The primary cause of errors is moving money around, transferring accounts” and losing track of perhaps significant interest, he added.

In any event, clients with well-organized records will have to pay less to their accountants than do people with disorganized records and missing papers. “The less time we spend on it, the less we charge,” he said.

CHALLENGING THE I.R.S. Of course, the Internal Revenue Service may take an erroneous position, too. Mark Luscombe, a lawyer and accountant who is principal federal tax analyst for CCH, which publishes books and software for tax professionals, said, “If you look at the criteria in the law and feel you are qualified” in taking a particular position “and the I.R.S. denies it, don’t take that as the last answer.”

The I.R.S. has usually prevailed when litigating cases in tax court, he said, but in the past year courts have “slapped the hands of the I.R.S.” more often than usual. A number of cases involving what the law calls “innocent spouse” relief, for example, were resolved in favor of taxpayers. Normally, if a husband and wife file jointly, each is liable for the taxes owed, but the law grants an exception to an “innocent spouse,” who can prove that he or she was the victim of a deceitful spouse and did not know of unreported income or lies on a tax return.

In another setback for the I.R.S., the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit held that the I.R.S. was required to disclose e-mail messages containing legal advice sent to field personnel by lawyers in the I.R.S. Office of the Chief Counsel. Mr. Luscombe said the I.R.S. had “a very long history of trying to keep internal communications secret.”

FAMILY BUSINESSES Beginning with 2007 returns, if a couple own a business, both husband and wife may file a Schedule C as a sole proprietor with their tax return, with each reporting his or her share of the income and paying self-employment tax, Mr. Kess said.

Previously they were required to file a partnership return, but many people did not bother, choosing instead to let one partner claim the business and file Schedule C. But when it comes time to file for Social Security and Medicare benefits, that could prove costly to the partner who did not report any of the income, especially in cases of divorce.

REFUNDABLE A.M.T. CREDITS Many people who had tax credits resulting from the exercise of incentive stock options in the dot-com heyday have been unable to claim them in recent years because they were liable for the alternative minimum tax. On 2007 returns, they will be able to claim up to $5,000 of those credits, Mr. Luscombe said, adding, “What I’m hearing is that it is token relief, not the relief they had hoped for.”

RECENT GRADUATES Although the earned income credit is intended for the working poor, some 2007 graduates who landed their first jobs late in the year may be eligible for it, Mr. Fleming said. Generally the credit may be available to a single filer whose adjusted gross income for 2007 is below $12,590, who cannot be claimed as a dependent on another person’s return and whose income does not include more than $2,900 of investment income.

SUPPORT OF OLDER RELATIVES People who are helping to support older relatives may want to consider how to do so most effectively under the tax laws, Ms. Weltman said. For 2008 through 2010, people in the two lowest tax brackets, 10 percent and 15 percent, will not be liable for any tax on long-term capital gains.

That would make it advantageous to give an appreciated security to an elderly relative who has modest income, rather than selling it and paying capital gains tax. The relative can sell it with no tax liability, Ms. Weltman said, though she cautioned, “Be sure the gain does not push her into a higher bracket.”

By JAN M. ROSEN

http://www.nytimes.com/

New Data Show Rising Inflation and Slumping Home Values

Wednesday, March 12th, 2008

  Two worrisome trends for the economy – falling house prices and the rising cost of everything else – picked up speed in data reported on Tuesday, putting policy makers in an increasingly tough position.If they move too aggressively to cut interest rates and stimulate the economy, they might stoke inflation at a time when consumers are already squeezed by higher prices for food, energy, clothing and other goods. But if they chose more austere measures, the economy may weaken substantially faster.

“The Fed is now having to walk a very fine line,” said Jane Caron, chief economic strategist at Dwight Asset Management, an investment firm that specializes in bonds. “We have clearly seen an acceleration in inflation pressure in the last couple of months and the risk is that the markets are going to react negatively to aggressive easing going forward.”Not surprisingly, a measure of consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in nearly five years. But the stock market was up slightly in midday trading after falling modestly at the open. Energy and technology stocks led the market higher after oil prices surged above $100 again and I.B.M. announced that it would buy back an additional $15 billion of its stock and improved its profit forecast. Treasuries moved slightly higher, indicating that bond investors were not overly fearful of inflation.

Tuesday’s data provided fresh evidence of the housing market’s prolonged slump. A leading index of home prices in 20 cities fell by 9.1 percent in December from the same month a year ago. Using a three-month moving average, the index, the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller, is falling at an annual pace of more than 20 percent. The index tracks repeat sales of single-family homes; it does not include condominiums.

Another government index of home prices that covers more of the country but does not include loans above $417,000 fell 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter, after falling 0.3 percent in the third quarter. The index, compiled by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, showed prices declining in all states, except Maine.

The Labor Department reported that wholesale prices, which exclude taxes and distribution costs, rose 1 percent in January, up from a drop of 0.3 percent. Compared with a year ago, prices were up 7.4 percent. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the index was up 2.3 percent from a year ago, up from 2 percent in December.

The latest inflation report appears to corroborate a broader trend of higher prices across the economy. Last week, the Labor Department reported elevated readings for consumer prices. The consumer price index was up 4.3 percent last month from a year ago, up from a 4.1 percent increase in December.

To be certain, the core rate of inflation – which excludes food and energy – remains closer to the Fed’s target of 1 percent to 2 percent. Core consumer prices were up about 2.5 percent in January, up from 2.4 percent in December.

“Months of surging energy prices appear now to be trickling up the production chain to finished goods prices,” Kenneth Beauchemin, an economist at Global Insight, a research firm, wrote in a note to clients.

The drumbeat of negative economic data appears to be taking a toll on consumers – at least in the way they perceive the economy, if not in how they spend.

The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell to a reading of 75 this month, from 87.9 last month. The index was last at this level in early 2003 at the start of the war in Iraq and a time when the economy was growing but unemployment rate was hovering just below 6 percent. By contrast, the unemployment rate was 4.9 percent in January.

“February may go down in history as the month that the previously indefatigable U.S. consumer finally threw in the towel, beaten by a combination of deteriorating labor market conditions, surging prices for food and energy and collapsing house prices,” Paul Ashworth, a senior United States economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients.

The Fed has cut its benchmark interest rate to 3 percent, from 5.25 percent in September, in an effort to offset the drag from the housing market on the broader economy. Its efforts have helped reduce some of the strains in the financial market but they have been less successful in lowering borrowing costs and easing lending standards for businesses and consumers.

In the last several weeks, mortgage interest rates have risen sharply as bond investors have grown more risk-averse. The national average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.04 percent last week, from a low of 5.48 percent in early January, according to Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored buyer of mortgages.

Economists say home prices will remain under pressure for much of the next year or longer because the supply of homes for sale remains high. It has also become harder for home buyers to get mortgages as rates have risen and banks have become more conservative in demanding bigger down payments and more proof of income than they did during the housing boom.

In many parts of the country, specialists note that home prices remain too high based on affordability calculations made using incomes and interest rates. A recent report by analysts at Credit Suisse, the investment bank, said that prices in some metropolitan areas like Phoenix, Miami and Los Angeles would have to decline by 20 percent to 40 percent more than they have already fallen for home affordability to be restored to its long-established level.

By VIKAS BAJAJ

http://www.nytimes.com/

Closing day April 6

Thursday, March 6th, 2008

Steamboat Springs – Despite record snowfall levels that are prompting other Colorado ski resorts to add additional weeks to their calendars, the Steamboat Ski Area is planning to close as scheduled this season, on April 6.

Snow levels aside, additional weeks in April simply aren’t profitable enough to warrant pushing back closing day, Steamboat Ski and Resort Corp. spokeswoman Heidi Thomsen said.

Wolf Creek Ski Area, counting 489 inches of snow as of Thursday, opted to extend its season last week. Wolf Creek’s runs will now remain open until April 13, and the resort will host skiers and riders two additional weekends: April 19 and 20 and April 26 and 27.

Monarch Mountain and Durango Mountain Resort, or Purgatory, also have announced extensions to their 2007-08 seasons, Colorado Ski Country USA spokeswoman Jennifer Rudolph said. Durango and Monarch both added an additional week of skiing and are now scheduled to close April 6 and 13, respectively.

At the end of February, Steamboat’s 399 inches of snow already had made 2007-08 at least the sixth-snowiest winter on record at the ski area. And this season marked the first time Steamboat received at least 100 inches of snow in three straight months – December, January and February.

But expanding ski season is not a common practice at the Steamboat Ski Area and has not been done since April 1993, Thomsen said.

Some local business workers said they would welcome an extended-season boost.

“You’d think they’d throw us a little local bone, but no,” restaurateur Eric Delaney said. Delaney was holding down the fort Thursday at Saketumi while his brother, who owns the base area business, was out of town.

Delaney expressed frustration that Ski Corp. was “cutting the season on both sides.” In addition to losing nine days in November – due to an unseasonably warm, dry fall – the season lasted an additional nine days last year, when closing day was April 15.

“We lost business when people canceled their reservations at the beginning of the season,” Delaney said. “Even just another week would be huge.”

Spring drop-off

Big snow early in the season does not necessarily draw crowds as spring approaches, and people pack up their skis and snowboards and take mountain bikes and tents out of storage.

“Usually, we see the demand drop off as it gets warmer and sunnier,” Thomsen said. “If it’s 70 degrees in Denver, people are going to get excited about other spring sports and activities.”

Rental shops dependent on the ski area agreed that the expected tourist drop-off in April would not make additional weeks of skiing especially profitable.

By April, restaurants and lodging properties already are closing their doors, and marketing for additional weeks would have had to start months ago for paying tourists to be hitting the slopes instead of just locals, said Todd Fellows, a manager at Ski Haus.

“Certainly, they’re not going to pay to keep their staff on the mountain for locals who don’t buy lift tickets, don’t eat hamburgers and don’t pay for parking,” Fellows said.

Although Fellows said lengthening the 2007-08 season would not bring significant profits for Ski Haus, his inner powderhound was disappointed.

“It’s a bummer if you’re a skier,” he said.

Another major factor in Ski Corp.’s decision-making is that the ski season flights at Yampa Valley Regional Airport also are scheduled to make their final departures April 6, Thomsen said.

“When the flights stop, the revenue stops,” Fellows said.

The ski area also could run into problems with its 1800 seasonal workers, who make up 90 percent of its employees. Both domestic and international seasonal workers often have existing plans to return to their hometown, including pre-purchased flights, and could be unable to work longer than expected, Thomsen said.

www.steamboatpilot.com

Ski Time Square demolition scheduled for summer

Thursday, March 6th, 2008

Steamboat Springs – It’s official: Demolition of Ski Time Square will happen all at once, and it will start this summer.

Businesses were notified Friday that they’ll have to be out – some next month, some a few months later. The Atira Group and Washington, D.C.-based Cafritz Interests are partnering to raze and redevelop the buildings around the base of the Steamboat Ski Area.

Although the groups had talked about demolishing the properties in phases, that is no longer under consideration, said Jane Blackstone, a development manager with Atira. She cited concerns with the sprinkler system used in Ski Time Square buildings that has required tens of thousands of dollars’ worth of repairs and, in at least one case, 24-hour surveillance from local fire employees.

“This sprinkler issue is a safety issue, and our first priority is to keep the buildings safe,” Blackstone said. “We have made what we believe is a responsible decision to take all the buildings down this summer, roughly a year before they would come down in a phased approach.”

Steamboat Trading Co. owner Erich Esswein said he had expected the phased approach to go through. He figured that he could have about $200,000 in inventory to get rid of come the end of ski season.

To address that issue, Ski Time Square retailers are planning a garage sale the first week of April, Esswein said. The Butcher Shop will be selling decades’ worth of photos, antiques and collectibles, he said.

“I think it’s a sad time in Steamboat history, just seeing Ski Time Square go,” Esswein said. “Just the cast of characters who own the businesses here and work here – it’s a big change.”

Tenants will leave at different times during the next few months, depending on the terms of their leases and whether any decide to leave early, Atira officials said. All businesses will be out by September, said Mark Mathews, vice president of development at Atira.

Mathews and Blackstone stressed that the community has pushed for the changes at Ski Time Square.

“I do think that all of this redevelopment was encouraged and embraced by the city and the community,” Blackstone said.

She said the developers are not yet to the point where they can start talking about what will go into the new mixed-use property. Current tenants might have options in the new development, Blackstone said, but there will be a time gap between demolition and completion of construction. The groups also are redeveloping Thunderhead Lodge.

The city of Steamboat Springs is sponsoring a study to determine the retail needs of the base area.

“What we’re excited about is really using an integrated approach to having a vibrant, mixed-use property, looking at how all these are going to flow together,” Mathews said.

The Atira officials said Steamboat needs to improve the area to improve its status as a tourist destination.

“We have a world-class mountain; now we want a world-class base area,” Blackstone said.

www.steamboatpilot.com

Insuring your home against disaster

Wednesday, March 5th, 2008

If the worst happens, you can’t be sure you’ll collect enough to bring back the home you love. Here’s what to do.

 (Money Magazine) — If last fall’s devastating California wildfires weren’t enough of a wake-up call, consider this: Nearly 60% of homes nationwide don’t carry enough insurance coverage to be fully rebuilt. On average those homes are underinsured by 21%. To give yourself a chance of being made whole, follow these steps before and after disaster strikes.

Beef up your policyRemember you’re insuring for future rebuilding costs. That means avoiding an actual-cash-value policy, which reduces your payout by how much your possessions have depreciated.

A guaranteed replacement-cost policy, which reimburses you for the full cost of rebuilding, is the gold standard but is almost impossible to find. Go for an extended replacement-cost policy, which pays you a set amount (the “dwelling limit”), plus a 20% to 25% margin. Add a building-code endorsement to cover the cost of complying with future rule changes.

Setting your dwelling limit high from the outset and reviewing it every few years is crucial. A good agent should be able to help, or for $8 you can create a custom estimate at accucoverage.com.

As a rough guide, keep in mind that the average cost to rebuild is $250 a square foot.

Document what you ownIn order to be reimbursed, you need records: pictures and videos of your stuff, receipts, model numbers and so on.

“Agent after agent tells me that if there is any dispute, the documentation makes the decision,” says Robert Rusbuldt, chief executive of the Independent Insurance Agents & Brokers of America.

At the California Department of Insurance’s website (insurance.ca.gov), you can download a 36-page guide that walks you through every room in the house (under Consumers, click on Information Guides and then on Residential Series). Keep these records outside your home.

Manage your claim with careAfter a disaster, call your agent immediately – but don’t agree to a settlement too quickly. You’ll get an initial check (or prepaid credit card) to cover hotel rooms, clothing and dining out; a typical up-front payment is $5,000. Then prepare to negotiate hard, especially if the damage is severe.

“The insurance industry has gotten a lot tougher,” says Amy Bach, executive director of UnitedPolicyholders.org. “It’s more adversarial.”

Your agent will have an adjuster come up with a damage estimate (the “scope of loss”), but if you anticipate a dispute, do your own research too, says industry consultant Andrew J. Barile.

Ideally, have the contractor you plan to work with create an estimate that details construction expenses room by room, including the cost of all materials and labor.

If you feel the insurer’s offer is a lowball one, don’t sign anything, and appeal to a supervisor. It may also help to complain to your state insurance regulator. If you hit a wall, Bach suggests hiring a public adjuster who will chase the claim on your behalf for a 7% to 10% cut. You can search for one at the National Association of Public Insurance Adjusters’ site, Napia.com.

Alternatively, you can work with an independent cost estimator, who will prepare a competing scope-of-loss report. That will cost you several thousand dollars, but it’s worth the price if you can sweeten your settlement by far more – and rebuild your home sweet home.

By Gerri Willis, Money Magazine contributing writer